Tuesday, February 23, 2021

The second wave to Easter will not end. Data without pathos published a black forecast


Slovak analysts have published their forecast, they expect that we will cross the sad limit of 8,000 dead today and after Easter we will be at the top of the mortality rankings. The situation is bad.

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We will not see the end of the second wave even after Easter, when 12,000 victims of Covid-19 will already shine in the column of the deceased. During an pandemic, a thousand people die in an average of eleven days (since the beginning of 2021, 5,000 people have died as a result of the disease or with a positive coronavirus test). Under normal circumstances, a total of about 5,000 people die in Slovakia every year from all diseases and causes.

These and other statistics were presented last night in the status of analysts from Give without pathos. In it, they bring a black prediction for the coming weeks to the Easter holidays.

More than eight thousand lives

Analysts yesterday predicted that today the number of deaths associated with the pandemic in Slovakia to date will be as high as eight thousand. They take into account the sum of deaths in Covid and Covid, which our Ministry of Health distinguishes.

illustration image Source: TASR / AP

“The vast majority of countries have a looser definition and include more people among the reported deaths, as they include the category of ‘suspected’ – Belgium, ‘positive in the last 30 days’ – Scandinavia and so on.” explain on Facebook what it looks like in other countries. The methodology in Slovakia is in line with the methodology of the World Health Organization, analysts also highlight the work of Slovak pathologists, who are accurate. But when predicting deaths, the two categories we distinguish must add up.

We will learn more from the statistics of 2021, when we will be able to compare them with previous years. But according to Dát without pathos, we know thanks to Eurostat that Slovakia had in November “Enough unknown deaths extra”, which are probably related to people who have died at home and who have not been tested.

They expect that the number of deaths will only increase in the coming weeks: we will record a thousand deaths in Slovakia in 11 days (it used to be 10), in the last 30 days on Monday we have recorded three thousand deaths. Five thousand people have died since the beginning of this year.

Analysts’ forecast is grim: “In 11 days we will have a total of 9,000, in the next 11 days 10,000, this way we will get 12,000 deaths after Easter. With 1,455 deaths per 1 million inhabitants, we are today in the TOP 10 in Europe (omitting Gibraltar and San Marino and Montenegro with less than 1 million inhabitants). After Easter, we will be at the top with Belgium, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, just behind us the UK, Portugal and Italy. “

According to Our World in Data we are really the worst in terms of deaths per million inhabitants. Unhappy we also lead in the ranking of the number of hospitalizations per million inhabitants. We are in the top three with Latvia and the Czech Republic.

Despite the efforts of analysts to be positive in the past, this time they no longer expect that the second wave after the holidays will end, the numbers will probably fall slowly. According to their new recalculations, we will not reach the average of 1,500 new cases per day, which they predicted for February in February, until March 2021.

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#wave #Easter #Data #pathos #published #black #forecast

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