Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Biden’s new-generation think tank “only knows the new side of China”, the United States may be hard to understand-Hong Kong Economic Times-China Channel-National News


The US Biden administration seeks to compete fiercely with China while cooperating and avoiding conflicts. The balance is quite complicated. The team thinking behind Biden is also a cause for concern. The Biden administration has appointed many new-generation strategic scholars in the United States as consultants. This group of people may influence Sino-US relations in the next few decades and have a significant impact. Some people believe that there is a big difference between the new generation of American strategic scholars and the older generation of “China Experts”, that is, they only see the new and strong side of China, and they may not be more tolerant and considerate of China than their predecessors.

Biden’s diplomatic team includes a group of new generations in their 30s and 40s, including Julian Gewirtz, director of China Affairs of the National Security Council. Gewitz graduated from Harvard University and Oxford University. He has studied Chinese since he was a child. In 2009, he had an internship at the China Caijing magazine. Among Americans, he is believed to be very familiar with the reality of China.

Gerwiz served as an adviser to the Obama Administration’s Department of Energy and joined the Council on Foreign Relations think tank last August as a senior researcher in China Studies.

Gewitz wrote an article in Foreign Affairs at the end of last year, saying that China believes that the United States is inevitably in decline, and the Trump administration’s actions further strengthened this judgment. He pointed out that the United States needs to prove to China that the United States is still strong and that the United States must effectively compete with China and rejuvenate its economic foundation, technological superiority and democratic system at home.

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Another new generation representative of the Biden advisory group is Rush Doshi, Senior Director of China Affairs of the National Security Council. Du Rusong was previously the director of the China Strategic Research Department of the Brookings Institution. Earlier this year, he and Kurt Campbell, the coordinator of Indo-Pacific Affairs of the Biden administration, wrote an article in “Foreign Affairs”, arguing that the United States needs to re-engage with Asia. On the basis of the Group of Seven (G7), the supply chain and other issues invited Australia, India and South Korea to form the “D10 Democracy” (D10).

Experts believe that from the think tank of the Biden administration, it can be seen that there has been an “intergenerational shift” in the US policy toward China.

Da Wei, a researcher at the International Strategy and Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, said that American think tanks who are studying China in their 30s and 40s are entering the decision-making sphere and will gradually dominate the US’s China policy. Some of them have an attitude towards China that is clearly different from that of the older generation of American “China Masters” such as Ezra Vogel.

Da Wei explained that the older generation of think tanks in the United States have witnessed a closed and backward China, so they are more tolerant and considerate of China, while the new generation only sees a powerful China after reform and opening up. Although he knows China’s closed and backward history, he does not Feeling the same, so from the very beginning, I saw China as a powerful country to deal with.

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But analysis believes that compared with the Trump administration, the Biden administration’s China team is relatively easy to predict anyway. Zhao Suisheng, a professor at the School of International Relations at the University of Denver, said that compared with Trump’s obvious lead to a new cold war in the US-China relationship in the later period of his administration, Biden sees China as a “strategic competitor rather than an enemy” and his foreign policy The team are all long-standing establishments, which determines that the Biden administration’s China policy is more predictable.

Zhao Suisheng believes that Biden himself and the think tanks he reuses are basically internationalists. They attach great importance to international multilateral issues and believe that these issues can only be dealt with by the United States and China. Therefore, Sino-US relations during the Biden era can at least be maintained at a relatively stable level.

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