After the challenge of vaccination that he is about to take up, Joe Biden must now succeed in relaunching the world’s largest economy, that of the United States. It plans to inject some 1900 billion dollars, or nearly 9% of the country’s current GDP.
Given the size of the US economy, no part of the world will be spared from the positive impact of a possible recovery in Uncle Sam, including African countries. In general, this recovery is synonymous with increased US demand, therefore African exports of raw materials or finished products to the United States should be driven up.
It should be remembered that the United States is the third largest trading partner in sub-Saharan Africa, with nearly 40 billion dollars in trade, with a balance largely in favor of the continent. Indeed, there are no less than 24.9 billion dollars of African exports to the United States against a little less than fifteen billion imports. Unfortunately, these exports consist essentially of hydrocarbons and, moreover, with the rise of the United States in shale gas, this figure is constantly falling. Because in 2008, trade had reached, it should be remembered, some 100 billion dollars.
Be that as it may, the recovery will directly impact all of these mainland companies that export to the United States. However, we have to wait for a less direct impact on the inflation that should result.
But beyond that, inflation in the States, which could be higher than 2%, will be synonymous with lower yields on old bonds because interest rates are bound to increase somewhat. Consequently, American investors will be led to orient themselves towards other markets. It is clear that Africans could benefit from this, especially for the 25 billion dollars they must issue in 2021.
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