Saturday, February 27, 2021

Corona numbers Switzerland: This is what it currently looks like


Corona numbers for Switzerland: Positivity rate 5.0% and R-value at 0.91

Current corona numbers: new infections and Co.

The data acquisition and output by the cantons or the Federal Office of Public Health always lag behind the current developments by a few days. That is why it is important that we ourselves do not rely on one value, but look at all the important key figures over the course.

The most famous number of the federal government is probably that of New infections, the so-called number of cases. It indicates how many Neumeldungen of Covid infections have been received by the FOPH. It should be noted here that the cases reported daily do not correspond to the infections on that day. Often the reported cases still contain late registrations for the last three to four days. In addition, this number depends not least on how extensively the test is carried out. Therefore, in this context, the Reproduction number (R value) and the positivity rate are important.

The data too Hospitalizations and deaths also impressively show how the situation is developing. It should be noted in this context that it takes a few days before an infected person has to go to hospital or even dies. Therefore there is a delay of two to four weeksuntil you can feel the influence of any measures on the statistics.

Development of the corona mutations in Switzerland

Viruses keep developing, including the coronavirus. The current focus is on the so-called N501Y-Mutationsstrang, which also include the B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 variants. According to the current state of research, this B.1.1.7 mutant is considered to be more contagious: it is transmitted more easily and thus faster – and can therefore become more dangerous for those people who become more ill than others if they are infected.

Which variant a tested coronavirus belongs to is currently being determined in various Swiss laboratories using genetic characterization of random SARS-CoV-2 samples determined. All samples are from infected people.

The red curve shows that Proportion of B.1.1.7 mutants among all samples examined. This value is currently rising – which is causing concern among politicians. The blue area shows how many mutated variants B.1.1.7 cases there are.

Switzerland and its cantons are currently leading no detailed and consistent sequencing by. The Science Task Force provides this data weekly. The data are therefore only estimates that may change retrospectively based on new data. The task force had already called for nationwide sequencing in summer 2020.

Vaccinations Switzerland: The situation in the cantons

Share of vaccinated persons in the Swiss population

Switzerland carried out the first vaccinations at the end of December 2020. Most of the cantons were only just beginning, however Early 2021 by vaccinating in cantonal vaccination centers and with mobile stations.

Since February 16, 2021, the BAG has been publishing figures about how many people fully vaccinated are. Some vaccines require more than one dose of vaccine to be fully effective. The numbers of fully vaccinated people can vary from the number of administered doses that have been published at this point so far.

The vaccination against the coronavirus is our greatest hope to overcome the pandemic and find a new normal. The first cantons want to make vaccinations available to the general public as early as spring. Then it should have enough vaccine doses for all residents, so those responsible. The federal government uses different vaccines.

Excess mortality in Switzerland

Coronavirus skeptics like to point out that the federal government often counts people as Covid deaths who did not die of the infectious disease Covid-19, but only. The data on excess mortality in Switzerland from the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) refute this claim. The gray area of ​​the graph shows the expected deaths for 2020.

If the curve leaves this area, one speaks of over- or under-mortality. For 2020, it can be seen that significantly more people over the age of 65 died than in previous years. In addition, this curve also exceeds that of the bad flu years of 2015 and 2017.

Excess mortality in the cantons

The following graphic shows the development of mortality in the cantons. The data were made available on January 31st in the two age groups (0–64 years and over 65 years) and show the periods during which the Cantons statistically an excess mortality Template. The smaller cantons have been omitted due to their lack of informative value.

Explanation: For the bar charts, we have added up both age groups. The lower bars (magenta) show the number of deaths per week. If there were more deaths in a week than the worst-case scenario, these deaths are colored black above expectations. In statistical terms, “worst case” is the upper limit of the expectation band.

Utilization of hospital beds

This is what the hospital workload currently looks like in intensive care units in Switzerland:

It must be noted that the Hospitals can postpone some interventionsto relieve the intensive care units. Therefore, the number of other patients decreased as soon as that of SARS-CoV-2 patients increased. To see in this graphic:

Hospital capacity is recorded by the federal government for the whole of Switzerland. If a hospital reaches its limits, it can transfer patients to less overburdened facilities. Which cantons at the moment work at the limit of capacityyou can see in this graphic:

Corona situation in the cantons

The 7 day incidence shows you whether the coronavirus is spreading among the residents of a canton or whether the cases are declining. This graph is based on the number of cases in relation to the population. In this way, the figures from the different cantons can be compared with one another, even though they differ in terms of population.

SARS-CoV-2 has spread in the individual cantons. With the 7-day incidence, we also show the change between the most recent and the highest value in the past two weeks. At the R value of the cantons we also show the unsharp area.

Positivity rate and number of tests

Number of tests carried out in Switzerland per day

The number of cases from the BAG alone can distort reality. If less testing is done, this obviously results in deeper messages. Therefore, it must be taken into account how many tests were carried out during this time.

Rate of positivity per day

From the ratio of the tests carried out and the tests that are positive therefrom, the Positivitätsrate. If this is over five percent, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends testing more. The development of the pandemic can only be reliably tracked as long as the positivity rate is kept low. A rapid increase in the positivity rate in any case indicates an increased infection with the coronavirus and the federal government must react.

R-value in Switzerland and the cantons

Of the R-value cares in this country again and again for discussion. The reason for this is that the Reproduction number is a model calculation and not a specifically measured value. In small cantons it shows a high level of uncertainty.

The R value shows how many people an infected person infects on average. Since not all infections are actually discovered, the value is calculated in a complex model from ETH.

The model shows: If the R value is above the value 1, we are already at it in exponential growth new infections. The value must be less than 1 for the cases to decrease. This is why this figure is particularly important. It indicates whether stricter measures should be taken or whether the Federal Council can already consider easing the situation.

Collaboration: Lea Senn, Reto Fehr (both watsonData), Leo Helfenberger, megan silberbauer (UX), Marius Egger

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