Under the new administration of Joseph Biden, NATO has decided to change its strategy towards Russia and China, which was established before 2010. According to the Secretary General of the Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, they took into account the efforts undertaken by Beijing and the worsened relations with Moscow. The Pentagon said Russia posed a threat to all members of the alliance because it “uses military force to achieve its goals.” Russia’s cooperation with China is an additional incentive for NATO to change its concept, although it can be expected that this cooperation under a common threat will be even closer.
Although the United States, which dictates NATO’s course of action, has returned to several international agreements, including the Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement, a new strategic concept will be adopted at the leaders’ summit in March. but from a position of force. To curb China and Russia, members will need to approve new funding.
EAST THREAT: Although NATO is trying to maintain unity with the help of the “threat from the East” factor, there is no unity in Europe regarding the designation of the enemy, at least not to the extent that all members are ready to tighten relations with Russia and China to the border from which there is no return. Germany has “pushed” through the EU a new investment agreement with Beijing and is trying in creative ways to maintain energy relations with Russia through “North Stream 2”.
Regardless of the sanctions being renewed over the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s interference in the war in Ukraine and the alleged poisoning of Alexei Navalny, Germany and some other members are expected to try to find a compromise formulation to maintain balance: China, while still satisfying American interests. Berlin expects that the pressure of the Biden administration will not be, at least not so much, open and threatening as in the time of Donald Trump, and that they will be left with the space to position themselves as an important factor on their continent. Biden’s strategic message that “America is back” is not without risk for Europe. Although it will not withdraw its troops from Germany, the diplomatic and military expansion of the United States can endanger the interests of Europe’s leading countries because their goals, dangers and needs are not the same.
Russia will not be left without an answer to the change of NATO’s strategic concept, because except for Stoltenberg’s open announcement, nothing changes in their behavior. The approach of the military alliance to the western Russian borders is taking place continuously and is accompanied by reciprocal Russian responses by accumulating forces, improving military equipment and intensifying military exercises in order to secure its defense and security interests. China, on the other hand, sees the announcements of NATO’s new strategic concept as a demonstration of the Cold War mentality, and there will be no shortage of answers from them.
GEORGIAN DREAM: The resignation of the Prime Minister of Georgia, Georgi Gahari, and the appointment of the former Minister of Defense, Irakli Garibashvili (who was the Prime Minister until 2015), carries a great risk of chaos. The Prime Minister explained the unexpected resignation by the attempt to reduce tensions after the arrest of the opposition leader and leader of the anti-Russian protests in 2019, Nikanor Melija.
After a fierce conflict in the parliament, the reason for which was that the Russian, the chairman of the inter-parliamentary Orthodox Union, sat in the position of the president of the parliament, Georgia entered a new circle of chaos. The decision of the Prime Minister to resign was greeted with rejoicing in the office of the Party of the United National Movement, and the Ambassador of Lithuania to Tbilisi, Andrius Kalindra, immediately expressed solidarity with the opposition. Whether the tensions will decrease, as the former prime minister stated – will certainly not.
The country, where the war against South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008 was led by former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who pursued a pro-Western policy and advocated NATO membership, was defeated in a five-day war. After last year’s elections, it seemed that Georgia would enter peaceful waters, but Skashvili, who was given an advisory position by the Ukrainian president, has a different vision: he demands from the opposition party, of which he was president, to bring the matter to an end and destroy state institutions from within.
Applying the technology of opposition attacks on the government (which he did in Ukraine during the time of Petro Poroshenko), Saakashvili again leads the scenario of a conflict with Russia in two republics that Moscow recognized and whose military bases are the guarantor of integrity. As in the protests in Belarus and Russia, the publication of the names and addresses of members of the special forces and the expansion of the opposition movement in order to effect new elections are demanded. Saakashvili appealed to diplomats accredited in Tbilisi not to think of Georgia as a secondary country – because America has returned.
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